India’s Clean Energy Firms Warn of Poor Weather Forecasting as Regulator Tightens Rules
India’s clean energy developers have raised concerns over the lack of accurate hyperlocal weather forecasting systems as the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) moves forward with stricter grid compliance rules. The proposed changes to the Deviation Settlement Mechanism, unveiled in a September draft and scheduled for implementation from April 2026, would narrow the permissible gap between forecasted and actual power supplied to the grid—penalising wind and solar producers for deviations.
During a recent public hearing, companies including Adani Green Energy highlighted persistent difficulties in predicting sudden weather shifts across the country’s tropical monsoon climate. Despite using advanced deep learning models and partnering with overseas forecasting experts, developers say abrupt transitions and the absence of specialised radars in renewable-rich regions continue to undermine forecast accuracy. Many also pointed out that government-issued weather data, updated only once every six hours, is too infrequent to support reliable short-term projections.
Industry representatives have urged authorities to strengthen forecasting technology before enforcing tougher penalties, warning that inaccurate predictions could lead to significant financial losses and discourage investment in the expanding clean energy sector. This follows a Reuters report last week revealing that India’s renewable energy ministry had already requested a delay in implementing the tighter rules to safeguard investor confidence.
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