US Waiver Keeps Russian Oil Exports To India Near Record Highs
Russian oil exports to India are expected to remain close to record levels in April and May after the United States extended a short-term sanctions waiver allowing continued purchases of sanctioned crude. Despite restrictions linked to the Ukraine war, trade flows have stayed strong, with India continuing to rely heavily on discounted Russian oil.
India imported a record 2.25 million barrels per day of Russian crude in March, nearly double February levels, making Russia its largest supplier. Arrivals are projected at about 2.1 million bpd in late April, with monthly volumes expected to stay above 2 million bpd. Temporary declines in mid-April were linked to disruptions from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian export infrastructure, though refiners had already secured most May shipments in advance at premiums of around $7–$9 per barrel over Brent.
Even under sanctions pressure, Russian oil continues to reach India through non-sanctioned trading and shipping channels. The renewed waiver has helped maintain stable flows, while India has also expanded the list of approved marine insurers for Russian cargoes to support continued imports and reduce logistical risks.
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