US-Israel Strikes on Iran Put Half of India’s Oil Imports at Risk
India’s oil supply faces renewed geopolitical risks after coordinated strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, threatening the critical Strait of Hormuz through which nearly 50% of India’s crude imports transit. According to analytics firm Kpler, India’s Hormuz-linked imports rose to 2.6 million barrels per day in February from 2 million bpd last year. A blockade or prolonged disruption could significantly impact India’s crude supplies from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.
While India may explore bypass options via Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline or the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, these alternatives have finite capacity and are dependent on producer allocations. Analysts warn that any significant Hormuz disruption could trigger higher Brent prices, increased freight and insurance costs, supply tightness, and pressure on India’s fiscal balances. India also exported 74,000 bpd of refined products via the Strait so far this year, up from 55,000 bpd in 2025, which could be affected by any disruption.
In response to rising tensions, OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia, are considering production increases to stabilize markets. Some Gulf producers have already boosted shipments preemptively, while Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia plan further increases in April. The volatile geopolitical backdrop has heightened uncertainty over global oil supply, particularly in the context of India’s growing dependence on Middle Eastern crude following a shift away from Russian oil.
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