India’s Russian Oil Imports Hit Record in November Ahead of US Sanctions
India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged to an estimated 1.9 million barrels per day in November 2025, marking a monthly record as refiners rushed to stock up ahead of US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil taking effect on November 21. Data from Kpler shows that imports were up 17% month-on-month and nearly 6% year-on-year, with volumes hitting their highest level in five months. Analysts expect a dip after the sanctions deadline, but say the decline is likely to be temporary as supply chains adjust.
Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst Sumit Ritolia noted that although November’s average so far is around 1.9 mb/d, the late-month slowdown may bring the final monthly average closer to 1.8 mb/d. He explained that widening discounts on Russia’s Urals crude—driven by sanctions pressure, weaker demand, logistical hurdles, and disruptions from Ukrainian drone attacks—have kept Indian demand strong. However, compliance concerns have prompted India, China, and Turkey to scale back certain purchases, especially from designated Russian entities.
Looking ahead, up to 800,000 barrels per day of Russian supply could be at short-term risk, with noticeable declines expected in December 2025 and January 2026. Despite this, analysts believe India will continue sourcing from non-sanctioned Russian suppliers, relying on shadow fleets, intermediaries, and complex ship-to-ship logistics to maintain flows. Cost competitiveness and geopolitical considerations make Russian barrels too valuable for India to abandon, especially as refiners diversify through opaque channels and alternative global suppliers.
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