Hindalco Forecasts Steady Novelis Earnings and Robust Domestic Demand for Fiscal 2027

Hindalco Industries expects its U.S. unit, Novelis, to deliver steady earnings of approximately $500 per tonne in fiscal 2027, recovering from a challenging year disrupted by a fire at its Oswego plant in New York. The fiscal 2026 disruptions resulted in a one-time fourth-quarter charge of 41.71 billion rupees ($437.59 million), holding adjusted EBITDA to $462 per tonne for the year. Managing Director Satish Pai declared during a media call that “the worst is over” for Novelis, expressing strong confidence in retaining major automotive clients like Ford.

On the domestic front, the major metals producer anticipates high double-digit growth in its Indian aluminium downstream business for the current fiscal year. This performance is expected to be propelled by the ramp-up of its new Aditya FRP rolling facility alongside expansions into higher-value products, including construction materials and electric vehicle components. For its copper segment, Hindalco projects a resilient quarterly EBITDA between 6 billion and 7 billion rupees, insulated from weak treatment and refining charges by strong downstream products and precious metals.

Despite these positive growth avenues, Hindalco is navigating increased input costs and supply constraints triggered by the Middle East conflict. Pai noted that prices for critical raw materials, specifically furnace oil and calcined petroleum coke, have surged and will likely rise by another 5% in upcoming quarters, correcting only when the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Looking further ahead, Pai stated that India could entirely eliminate its dependence on imported refined copper within two years through recycling and capacity boosts, though a reliance on imported copper ore will persist.