Saurabh Mukherjea Warns of Job Losses and Rising Crisis for India’s Middle Class
India’s middle class is facing a growing economic crisis, warns Saurabh Mukherjea of Marcellus Investment Managers, who says nearly one-third of white-collar jobs may be at risk as AI reshapes India’s most profitable sectors. As consumption slows and companies accelerate automation, he argues the country’s salary-driven economic model is beginning to break down. Short-term policy stimuli may offer temporary relief, but without deeper reforms to boost consumption, Mukherjea predicts another slowdown in demand and profit growth.
The impact of AI-led disruption is already visible across IT, financial services, and media, where CEOs privately admit that 20–30% of their workforce could be phased out. Roles such as call centre staff, HR teams, underwriters, coders, and marketing departments are increasingly being replaced by cheaper, scalable AI solutions. Mukherjea notes that these firms, with low capital costs, find it more economical to replace labour with technology—intensifying pressure on India’s working middle class.
Mukherjea also raises concerns about India’s governance structure, arguing that it is built to address issues faced by low-income groups, not the emerging challenges of a “second world” middle class with far more complex economic needs. With limited institutional capacity in areas like R&D and higher education, he warns India risks slipping into a middle-income trap unless the government reduces red tape and allows small businesses to grow. As the country transitions from a salary-led to a gig-driven consumption model over the next two to three years, he stresses that policymakers must step back rather than step in to avoid long-term stagnation.
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