IndiGo Capacity Cuts May Push Domestic Airfares Higher This Summer: Cirium
Domestic airfares in India are likely to rise this summer as overall capacity shrinks, driven largely by IndiGo’s operational constraints following its December 2025 schedule disruptions. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, India’s domestic capacity in April 2026 is expected to be 2% lower compared to April 2025, reversing the sector’s usual growth trend. The decline is primarily due to a 10% capacity cut imposed on IndiGo by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA).
Cirium noted that while its earlier forecasts projected India’s aviation market to grow at around 10% annually over the next decade, the IndiGo crisis has temporarily stalled expansion. With domestic schedules not growing and uncertainty over how long capacity restrictions will last, airfares are expected to increase. Although the Ministry of Civil Aviation capped fares following the IndiGo episode, it may review this decision once the summer schedule begins in April, as fares are typically market-driven.
IndiGo’s troubles began after new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) norms took effect in November 2025, leading to the cancellation of over 5,600 flights in December and widespread passenger disruption. The airline has since come under scrutiny from the Competition Commission of India for alleged abuse of dominance. Financially, IndiGo reported a 77.6% drop in net profit in Q3FY26, hit by labour law provisions, operational disruption costs, and regulatory penalties following the cancellations.
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