India’s Wheat Output Set to Rise in 2026, But Weather Cuts Estimates
India’s wheat production is expected to increase in 2026 compared to last year, though it may fall short of earlier projections due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms damaging the maturing crop, according to trade and industry officials. The country, the world’s second-largest wheat producer after China, grows a single annual crop sown between October and November and harvested from March to April. While favourable weather boosted output in 2025, a late-February heatwave this year raised fresh concerns over yields.
Industry estimates suggest production will remain below the government’s forecast of a record 120.21 million metric tons. The Roller Flour Millers Federation of India now expects output to range between 113.5 and 114 million metric tons, slightly lower than its earlier estimate of 115 million tons but still above last year’s 109.5–110 million tons. Increased sowing, covering 33.4 million hectares compared to 32.8 million hectares a year ago, has supported higher output expectations despite weather-related setbacks.
Recent rains have helped cool wheat-growing regions, offering some relief from extreme heat, but hailstorms in parts of northern India have raised concerns over localized crop damage and grain quality. Experts note that while the overall harvest is likely to exceed last year’s levels, quality issues may persist in certain pockets. Farmers and traders remain cautious, closely monitoring weather conditions in the final stages of the harvest season.
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