India Faces Driest Monsoon Since 2009 as Food Inflation Concerns Grow

India is on track for its weakest monsoon since 2009, with cumulative rainfall currently 15% below the long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department. The growing rainfall deficit is raising concerns over crop yields, agricultural output and food prices.

A possible tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal during the final week of September could bring some rain to eastern and northeastern India, but experts say it may not significantly reduce the national deficit. Forecasts suggest the overall rainfall shortfall could remain in the double digits by the end of the season.

The weak monsoon is also adding to food inflation concerns, with food inflation rising to 5.95% in August. Lower plantings of crops such as rice, sugarcane and corn could put further pressure on supplies. The government has already taken measures including duty-free sugar imports and subsidised onion sales to help control food prices.

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