Rupee Posts First Monthly Gain Since April 2025
The Indian rupee strengthened about 1% in February, marking its first monthly gain since April 2025, supported by a rebound in foreign portfolio inflows and the announcement of a long-awaited U.S.-India trade deal. The currency recovered from near record lows seen at the end of January, though gains were tempered by global uncertainties, including a U.S. Supreme Court order striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs and concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence on India’s IT sector.
Despite the recovery, volatility persisted. IT stocks recorded their worst monthly performance since September 2008, weighing on overall sentiment. Traders said intermittent intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helped cap losses beyond the 91-per-dollar level. On Friday, the rupee closed marginally weaker at 90.9750 against the dollar after moving in a narrow range during the session.
Market participants are now watching whether the rupee’s historically positive March seasonality will materialize, with the currency averaging gains of around 0.8% during the month over the past decade. Analysts see scope for further appreciation if the rupee sustains levels stronger than 91 per dollar and foreign inflows continue. Attention is also on India’s October-December GDP data, forecast in a Reuters poll to show growth of 7.2%, which will be the first reading under a new data series.
Pic courtesy: google/ images are subject to copyright
