India Faces Second Straight Year of Sugar Shortfall as Mills Shut Early

India is heading toward a second consecutive year where sugar production is expected to fall short of domestic consumption, as reduced sugarcane yields have forced mills to shut earlier than usual. Industry officials estimate that total output may not exceed 28 million metric tons this season, lower than earlier projections and close to or below annual demand levels.

The shortfall comes after initial forecasts of around 31 million tons, with demand estimated between 28.5 and 29 million tons. However, excessive rainfall impacted cane yields, leading to an accelerated shutdown of mills. By the end of March, 467 out of 541 operating mills had already closed, significantly higher than last year’s figure for the same period. Key producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka have seen most mills halt operations ahead of schedule.

Despite higher production in the early months of the season, the combination of lower overall output and increased export quotas is expected to tighten domestic supplies. This will likely reduce carryover stocks for the next season and support local sugar prices. Industry experts now expect opening stock levels to drop below 4 million tons, compared to about 5 million tons at the start of the current season.

Pic courtesy: google/ images are subject to copyright