AI Boom Drives Global Trade Growth, Boosting China and India, IMF Says

The growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) has strengthened economic growth in China, India and other Asian countries, while driving global trade beyond its overall growth rate, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, said on Tuesday. Speaking at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, she noted that global trade would have expanded at a much slower pace without the surge in AI-related demand and investment.

According to the IMF, global trade grew by 8.3% between 2023 and 2025, while trade in AI-related goods and services increased by 29%. Without AI-related trade, overall global trade growth would have been limited to 4.6%. However, the IMF warned that the concentration of AI supply chains in a small number of countries and industries could create vulnerabilities and potential disruptions.

The IMF also highlighted risks from high public debt, inflation, cybersecurity threats and a possible correction in AI market valuations. Tenreyro said that if AI investment continued without delivering meaningful productivity gains, economic growth benefits could weaken while inflation increased. The fund is also updating its research into AI’s impact on employment as policymakers assess the technology’s longer-term economic implications.

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